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Battle of ideas

  • Nick
  • 9 Oct 07, 06:12 PM

Imitation - they say - is the sincerest form of flattery. If so, the Conservatives should be feeling very very flattered.

Today the list of measures announced by the chancellor sounded like a watered down summary of the proposals unveiled at the Tory Conference. This will spawn endless headlines about foxes being shot or political clothes being swapped. It will allow the Tories to claim that they're making the political weather and winning the battle of ideas.

And yet, the Prime Minister is unlikely to care about such things. He smiled broadly as each measure was announced by his ally Alastair Darling. He will hope that he has dealt with the grievances of those who fear they'll be taxed too much if they or their parents die as well as the anger that the non-domiciled rich are taxed too little.

He will also now claim that David Cameron is committed to spending two billion pounds of public money on unnecessary tax cuts which will benefit the richest most - money, which, he will insist, will have, in the end to be paid for by cuts in public spending on health and education.

Thus far, thus clear if voters were to be able to choose in a few weeks time but, of course, they won't. With an election not likely now before 2009 these arguments about how to spend relatively small sums of public may barely be remembered by the time we all do get to vote.

What will be in people's minds is how well the British economy, voters and our public services have weathered a period of lower growth, higher borrowing and lower public spending increases.

Confident predictions

  • Nick
  • 9 Oct 07, 03:45 PM

A visibly nervy Alastair Darling is reading a script written by Gordon Brown's Treasury. He has just announced the key facts - that his growth forecast is down and borrowing forecast is up.

The politics is still to come but I confidently predict that he will announce a significant reform of inheritance tax and extra spending for health and education. Calculators out at the end to be sure what it really means.

UPDATE AT 03:55PM: Now the politics begins...

Imitation is, they say, the sincerest form of flattery.

He has just lifted the proposal of the Tories and the Lib Dems to reform air passenger duty so it is a per plane rather than a per passenger tax.

And - having - rubbished Tory proposals to raise £3.5 billion from "non domicile" taxpayers - he signalled that he would look at the very same issue. It's worth noting that the Treasury review of this began in 2003.

UPDATE 04:12PM: There we go. He has, in fact, in effect doubled the inheritance tax threshold for widows and widowers and backdated it too. This is winning the jeers of the Tories for stealing their ideas but the chancellor will comfort himself that this will re-assure precisely that group of voters in marginal seats who were wooed by the Tories and will be welcomed by the Daily Mail, amongst others, as a boost for marriage.

George Osborne's most powerful line of attack is that Gordon Brown has talked about having a vision but had to wait for the Tories to tell him what it is.

Out of the blue

  • Nick
  • 9 Oct 07, 01:29 PM

Just when you thought you'd never hear the words "cash for honours" again, out pops a mysterious press notice from the Crown Prosecution Service stating that they've just advised the Met that "there is insufficient evidence to charge any individuals after an investigation into allegations under the Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925 in relation to the Conservative Party." That's right, the Tories.

The CPS says that the file of evidence centred on two separate matters - the nomination of a donor as a working peer and an approach made to the Conservative Party by a party donor. Who are these people? I don't yet know but I'm keen to find out!

As the champagne flowed at the recent Tory treasurers’ reception at the Conservative Party conference, one Tory moneybags confessed his relief that "cash for honours" had not tainted them. Clearly, it got closer than any of us realised.

Economic slowdown

  • Nick
  • 9 Oct 07, 10:33 AM

Pity poor Alistair Darling. Not only is he the poor soul who has to follow a decade of the “most successful chancellor in living memory". Not only does he have to do that with the Iron Chancellor as his boss. He is also the man sitting in the Treasury as the economic music stops or, to be more precise, slows.

Alistair DarlingThe Big Picture of today's and Comprehensive Spending Review is slower economic growth and slower spending rises - slower, that is, than at any time since Labour came to power and barely faster in many areas than during Tory years.

Darling has one great advantage over Brown though. He neither seeks nor enjoys the political limelight. He is one of those rare political creatures who enjoys power combined with obscurity. I recall asking him how I'd judge his success at a previous department. His answer - meant sincerely - was "by the speed I reduce the number of times this place makes the press".

As chancellor, total obscurity is not an option and all holders of the office produce political rabbits from hats to liven up an otherwise dreary list of statistics and reviews.

So, today there will be giveaways, new green taxes and higher taxes on "private equity fat cats" and Tory foxes hunted if not yet actually shot on the issue of inheritance tax. The real significance of today, however, will be the public acknowledgement that we - both the government and individuals - have less money than we've enjoyed for years.

PS. Last night I reviewed all the comments posted on the non-election announcement. I remain staggered at the number of people willing to blame media speculation for a story which the PM himself now openly admits was true ("I did consider it") and which he admits he could have killed ("I could have decided earlier").

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