Remaining questions
- 5 Oct 07, 09:37 AM
So why isn't the election off? Surely, you may say, with polls this tight, this volatile and with a history of overstating Labour’s ratings; surely with difficult boundary changes; and surely with there being no need to risk all now, Gordon Brown will pull back? Not yet he ain't. His aides still say that the decision has yet to be taken.
Why not? Brown would be mad - and he isn't - to allow his fate to rest on one set of polls straight after the Tories' best week for a long time. He will care more about:
• polls taken in marginals - for several days Team Brown have said that the Tories’ promise to cut inheritance tax is playing well here
• an assessment of whether the Tories’ policies can be "undone" in a short campaign or will take longer to undermine. Labour believes that "the sums don't add up" attack will work eventually
• polls which assess his strengths against David Cameron - he's been way ahead on measures of strength, being "in touch" and having answers to the problems Britain faces
• advice about turnout in November - some ministers believe it will knock 2% off Labour's share but others say that there's no reason to believe that their voters dislike the dark and rain more than the Tories
I suspect that on all the above Brown will believe that he can win but questions will still remain:
• Would a fourth consecutive election victory be such an achievement that you simply have to go for it when you can, even if you risk a smaller majority?
• How weakened would he be by a lower majority in a low turnout in an unnecessary election?
• Is this the Tories’ high-water mark - following a showcase conference displaying a rare week of unity and unveiling their best policies - or a platform for their recovery?
• How black are those economic clouds on the horizon?
Gordon Brown is, as William Hague observed this week, a "calculator" rather than an instinctive politician. There will be more questions he'll ask, twice as many opinions and three times as many doubts.
So, the man who didn't run against Tony Blair in 1994, who didn't lead moves to topple him will, I believe, hesitate again. That, of course, could turn out to be "tosh"!
UPDATE 11.20: The news that the Comprehensive Spending Review is on Tuesday does not alter election calculations. It probably reflects a desire to have a proper opportunity for a statement on Iraq on Monday after all the of GB's visit.
More significant though will be the downgrading of forecasts for economic growth. UBS have just downgraded their UK growth figures to 1.9% for 2008 compared to the Treasury forecast of 2.5-3.0% which Alastair Darling has he will revise next week.
The possibility of a persistent economic slowdown is one reason some ministers believe that if an election is not held now it won't be until 2009.
