Winter cold snap?
As you may have already read; Gull and I have been out and about filming recently for a new series of Weatherman Walking and overall we've been very lucky with the weather, enjoying some warm sunshine.
Last Friday the temperature at reached a balmy 23 Celsius 73 Fahrenheit, making it the warmest day there since October 18, 1997. The October average maximum temperature is about 14 or 15 Celsius.
Since then it has turned cooler. In fact last night with clear skies there was a slight frost in Capel Curig in Snowdonia with a low of -1 Celsius, 30 Fahrenheit.
You may remember last winter being very cold - the coldest in Wales for over 30 years and we could, although by no means definite, be in for a repeat performance this winter with temperatures lower than normal.
using data from late September shows the UK swathed in blue in the Dec-Jan-Feb 2010/11 image.
This indicates below average temperatures with even colder conditions across mainland Europe, Scandinavia and Russia.
This would suggest blocking areas of high pressure forming to the north and east of Britain which would deflect the Atlantic jet stream further south with cold winds from either the Arctic, Scandinavia or Siberia.
Of course, there is no guarantee with any forecast, especially the long range variety.
The American forecast models regularly change and we could even end up in a battle ground between mild and moist air from the Atlantic bumping up against colder and drier continental air.
This would lead to brief cold snaps alternating with spells of mild, wet and windy conditions.
The American model was however successful at predicting the cold winter we experienced last year but will it be right this time round?
Only time will tell, but it might be worth stocking-up on some extra wood for the fire and topping-up the car anti-freeze - just in case!
Derek
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