Â鶹Éç

Changeable or even unsettled and at times quite windy conditions dominate the current forecast.

In line with this trend, temperatures could gradually decrease, albeit with smaller upward fluctuations in between.

By the end of next week, there is still a risk of colder conditions breaking through. However, at least somewhat drier and calmer spells are possible.

Unsettled and windy

Over the weekend, unsettled and increasingly windy conditions are expected as an intense low pressure system approaches from the central North Atlantic.

Storm Ashley will bring strong winds across much of the UK on Sunday, particularly in the north-west and west, along with the increased risk of coastal flooding in parts of Northern Ireland and north-west Scotland.

Spells of heavy rain or showers, some of them thundery, will accompany the associated fronts. Temperatures could temporary rise a little, especially in the south-east and south of the UK.

Next week, the global weather forecast models still differ to some extent. Nevertheless, there are increasing signs that the high pressure could redevelop over western and central continental Europe towards midweek, after a changeable, breezy and slightly cooler start to the week.

Regarding this trend, conditions could temporarily be somewhat drier and calmer, with temperatures rising slightly.

Later on, however, the high pressure ridge will shift more over Fennoscandia and eastern Europe. In view of this set-up, low pressure systems could again approach from the south-west and west, even within a strengthening flow pattern.

A deep low pressure with its associated fronts will probably move across parts of the UK towards the next weekend, accompanied by strong winds as well as heavy rain, increasing the risk of regional flooding.

Behind the cold front of this intense low pressure, colder air could sink south-east, resulting in temperatures close to or even slightly below average.

However, the southern extent of this burst of colder air is still unclear. Nevertheless, a weak high-pressure ridge could move in from the west, more pronounced in England and Wales.

Likely to be colder

As October draws to a close and we head into November, the high pressure is likely to shift more towards the central North Atlantic or to far north-west Europe, while the low-pressure systems could track further east to the south and south-east, which could lead to an even colder and brisker north-west to northerly flow back to the UK.

Other developments are still possible, but temperatures in early November are likely to fall at least slightly below average, with a sharper decline probable in Scotland.

It could remain a bit wetter and windier across much of the UK, with showery conditions and wintry precipitation on higher ground. However, north-western, and perhaps western parts may see somewhat drier and calmer conditions.

Near average temperatures

During early November, high pressure may persist over the far north-west Europe and low pressure systems will continue to track in a south to south-easterly direction over the eastern North Atlantic.

Temperatures could remain near average or be slightly below average, along with temporarily somewhat drier and calmer conditions, due to intermittent high pressure influence.

However, during this period, wetter and windier conditions could prevail in view of a more active North Atlantic pattern. Temperatures could rise slightly towards mid-November, with a more westerly flow developing later on.

The forecast in the middle of next week could confirm the risk of a repeating colder pattern at the beginning of November. The duration and extent of this event remain to be seen.