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Welsh ministers' finances transformed, say experts

Chancellor Rachel Reeves poses with the red budget box outside her office on Downing Street in London.Image source, Reuters
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced an extra 拢1.7bn for Wales in her Budget

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Increases in public spending by Chancellor Rachel Reeves have 鈥渢ransformed鈥 the Welsh government鈥檚 budget, finance experts have said.

They say it should allow for a boost to NHS funding next year, without cuts to other departments.

But there could be difficult decisions in future years after a rapid rise in spending tails off.

Finance secretary Mark Drakeford will present his budget to the Senedd on 10 December.

The amount Drakeford has to spend depends largely on the chancellor, who announced an extra 拢1.7bn for Wales in her Budget on Wednesday.

Although the UK government includes the funding in the next financial year, starting in April, the Welsh government says it is being spent over two years.

More than 拢700m in day-to-day spending announced by the chancellor is arriving in this financial year.

Drakeford told 麻豆社 Radio Wales Breakfast 鈥渁 good slab of it鈥, estimated to be around 拢500m, has already been committed to public sector pay increases.

That leaves him with around 拢1bn of 鈥渘ew money鈥 in the next financial year, he said.

Compared to recent spending squeezes, he said 鈥渢o have a billion pounds extra next year, it鈥檚 a different world鈥.

拢500m hole

In a , experts at Cardiff University said: 鈥淭hese announcements have transformed what would have been an exceptionally tricky budget round.鈥

The extra funding was 鈥渞emarkable鈥 compared to the previous Conservative government鈥檚 spending plans and Labour鈥檚 manifesto, according to authors Guto Ifan and Ed Gareth Poole.

However the funding is 鈥渕assively front-loaded鈥, meaning day-to-day funding for public services will grow more slowly after 2026 and capital spending, for infrastructure and equipment, will fall in real terms.

鈥淕iven the perennial real-terms increases to the NHS budget, it implies a return to a very difficult medium-term outlook for most public services,鈥 they say.

With waiting times at record high levels, the NHS is likely to be near the front of the queue for extra funding.

But with growing costs and rising demand for services, councils say they face the prospect of a 拢500m hole in their budgets this year.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Lord Davies said the NHS 鈥渋s on its knees in Wales鈥 and funding from Tory governments 鈥渉ad disappeared somewhere in the big black hole of Cardiff Bay鈥.

Reeves has funded a lot of the extra spending with a rise in the National Insurance paid by employers.

It is not yet clear whether Welsh public sector employers will get help to cope with the added pressure on their wage bills.

Welsh government sources expect additional funding above what was announced in the Budget and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens referred to 鈥渇urther money鈥 when asked about it on Wednesday night.

Plaid Cymru MP Ben Lake told 麻豆社 Wales Live that public sector employers should be 鈥渃ompensated in full鈥.

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