New CI
| 11:46 UK time, Friday, 8 September 2006
Classical counterinsurgency, or CI, requires protecting the civilian population and going after insurgents with effective military power.
Part of protecting civilians is helping them develop a police force and army they can trust. That's an important dimension of what is often called 'hearts and minds' - foreign powers backing a corrupt regime whose police are on the take and whose army is just as likely to run away as control guerillas get nowhere.
In Iraq, according to Mowafak al Rubaie, the Iraqi National Security Adviser, Iraqi government forces are now trusted and that's helping with another dimension to counterinsurgency that has begun to be much more important in recent conflicts.
Tip offs.
Militants can't go on planting roadside bombs in a city as crowded as Baghdad without someone seeing them. That someone has to make a decision - warn the authorities or turn a blind eye.
If the authorities are visible as remote foreign troops who don't speak your language, turning a blind eye is easier.
If the forces of law and order are your neighbours' sons and daughters, warning them of attempted bombings is obviously easier.
Mr. al Rubaie says that is now happening more and more, as the Iraqi government takes charge of its streets.
We'll see. Because the next thing that has to happen is ordinary Iraqis believing their government can win.
That will require infiltration of insurgent groups by Iraqi government loyalists, and the 'turning' of insurgent group members into government agents.
Insurgencies can't be beaten by military force alone. And hearts and minds doesn't mean handing out chocolates to children.
It means treachery by insurgents and confidence amongst those fighting for the elected government.
Those are signs to watch out for in Iraq.
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