Bottom Line
| 08:29 UK time, Tuesday, 18 July 2006
The shape of the diplomatic effort to bring an end to the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel is becoming clearer - and harder for us to report on radio because this kind of talking takes place in secret and in code.
That means some speculation is needed to fill in the gaps.
We are getting some clues from the Italians, who are in touch with the Iranians, and from the French, who are in contact with the Israelis and the Lebanese government.
The elements of a deal under discussion are: a force to keep Hezbollah at a distance from Israel's border; a prisoner swap; and an end to rocket attacks on Israel.
There are though, a number of sharp differences in the way the parties are interpreting how such a deal would be implemented.
The plan from the international community, ie the G8 summiteers, is for an international force, perhaps from the UN, to patrol the border. But Israel wants the Lebanese Army to set up the buffer zone.
A strengthened, independent Lebanese government withan effective army is the only northern neighbour with which Israel thinks it can build a relationship.
According to this strategy, Lebanese moderates would be forced to confront Hezbollah, and to disarm them. In the Israeli view, Hezbollah has had too free a hand for too long and that's why things reached the current crisis.
From Hezbollah's point of view, only a ceasefire with no change in its status in Lebanon would consolidate the 'victory' it has achieved. Hezbollah has won widespread admiration amongst many in the region by humiliating Israel's army with the killing and capture of Israeli soldiers inside Israel last Wednesday.
A ceasefire would enable Hezbollah to maintain its pressure on Israel to quit the West Bank and make further concessions.
Israeli public opinion appears to be behind the assault on Lebanon so far. The Israeli financial markets have actually risen as investors calculate Israel has already disrupted Hezbollah's ability to fire rockets at Haifa and other towns.
For the time being, Israeli Prime MInister Ehud Olmert may believe he can deliver on the promises he made in his speech to the Knesset. He promised to subdue what he called "radical, terrorist and violent elements... sabotaging the life of the entire region and placing its stability at risk."
He said Israel intends to "remove this threat to the Middle East."
" We will continue to operate in full force until we achieve this. On the Palestinian front, we will conduct a tireless
battle until terror ceases, Gilad Shalit is returned home safely and the shooting of Qassam missiles stops."
For now, that doesn't sound like willingness to accept a return to border clashes and sporadic exchange of fire with Hezbollah.
And that's what Israel thinks the past years of European 'guarantees' and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon have brought.
Comments
Bush provided comic relief with his G8 Comments while greedy politicians destroy innocent lives.
the real problem to mideast crisis is the greed and arrogance of both US and UK,no one ask for their democracy and freedom,it is a ploy to steal oil and put their military post in the middle east so as to control the place like they are doing in iraq now and uk did in Oman,qatar and other places,they should not be allowed to be part of the peace deal they are ethnocentric-their leaders are just like hitler ,milosevic