麻豆社

Numbers that seem to support Labour's choice of PPB - a Presidential Carwyn (solid in his family solid with the people) giving steady leadership and maintaining continuity. No risk of the chaotic reform programme current in Whitehall with its screeching U turns arriving here. Kirsty might take the lesson - young mother, in the Assembly from Day 1, outstanding Chair of Health Committee leading the party best-placed to soften Labour as they did before? And all without Plaid's march to a Republican, separatist Patagonia on Severn...

I found it interesting that over 36.2% of those asked didn't want to see taxing powers go to the assembly. I suppose that might change in time, but it seems to me once you're on the 'devolutionary' track, there's little going back without scrapping the whole thing. I think we need to give all the power possible to the Senedd, give them time, evaluate performance, and judge from there. Otherwise, the AM's just use lack of powers as a scapegoat.

Why the bated breath on manifestos? These pernicious documents are hardly worth the paper they are written on, promises waiting to be broken. Mr. Hain says this is about sendiing a message to Westminster, no it's about what the Assembly Government can do for Wales. He's been so long in the Westminster bubble that's all he can sound like, parroting stuff which sounds like Gordon Brown leaves me totally cold. His interventions do for the Welsh Labour campaign what Prescott's do for the 'No' to AV campaign, the reverse of what's intended.

It's so nice to see my predictions confirmed (see post on previous thread) about the voting trend.

This poll has corrected for Welsh speaking to the acknowledged level of between 20% and 21% and as a result is more accurate.

Betsan is wrong to say that Plaid has remained steady and about level with the Tories. This is the third poll where the Plaid vote has fallen; one can be accidental or an outlier, two could be a coincidence but by the time you have three saying the same thing you have to believe it.

Tory voters are not disenchanted and their vote will hold overall but they will lose constituency seats where they are against Labour.

The constituency break down is based on too small a number of respondents to be accurate but it's fun nonetheless. Libdems in front in Ceredigion. Labour in front in Arfon.

Rhondda so p'eed off with Plaid that they would rather see a minority Labour government than another Plaideologically driven "One Wales 2"

#4 "Libdems in front in Ceredigion. Labour in front in Arfon."

good grief. If you're genuinely expecting that then I'm afraid you'll be disappointed.

This poll does seem to confirm that it's looking very good for Labour and it's going to be frustrating for Plaid Cymru (who historically get squeezed when Labour poll well), but you can't assume an uniform swing Wales-wide. I expect that the main result of this Labour bounce (which is nothing more than the result of the traditional Welsh reflex and default reaction of running to any old donkey wearing a red rosette once the Tories run Westminster) will be the further solidifcation of the Labour vote in already safe Labour seats. They will surely gain a handful of constituency seats (and possibly even a regional one or two) but the swing will not be uniform. They will certainly not win in Arfon.

Hi , Your RSS2 feed does not work with google as the browser does not have an RSS reader. If you wish I can send you an xslt file which will render your output in the google browser.

Paul

A rather meaningless poll IMHO. Aggregated voting intentions based on a ridiculously low 748 results! People have expressed voting intentions for Parties which are not even standing in the respective constituencies! And it effectively ignores the 20 List seats from which the final outcome is likely to be decided.

Past experience shows people's voting intention on the Lists does not correlate all that well with their constituency vote, the minor parties traditionally do much better on the Lists. Hopefully, by now, UKIP, BNP, and the Green Party will have learned that putting up FPTP candidates actually damages their result on the Lists and they will stick to List candidates only. The few polls which have included List voting intentions suggest there could be up to 5 assorted List AMs from the minor parties if the d'Hondt percentages needed to win are similar to past results. If the Lib-Dem List vote collapses to 6% it could easily happen.

Oher than the usual 麻豆社 tendency to insult our intelligence, I don't know why you have even bothered retailing this poll?

Is there a list of candidates anywhere please Betsan?

Dispozest;

"Oher than the usual 麻豆社 tendency to insult our intelligence, I don't know why you have even bothered retailing this poll?"

Rather cruel I think. How is it massively out of line with the last two Yougov polls?

Yougov March4-8........Yougov March28-30............ClarityApril.
LabAv. 46.5.............................46.........................50.8
ToryAv. 20...............................20.5.......................20.3
Plaid Av 18.5.............................16.5.......................16.7
Libdem 6.0............................... 8.0.........................7.6

Consistent, considering the normal levels of variation you can expect.

Isn't this new poll from RMG:Clarity just an indulgent, glorified rehash of the recent YouGov poll added to the Western Mail/Beaufort Research poll from last week (?

We all know Labour will win handsomely in Wales, the only question is over who comes second. The Conservative-LibDem coalition is not inspiring confidence in anybody, so this is a golden opportunity for Plaid Cymru if they can find the policies to win the Welsh people over.

10....Calvin.

Remember that in the regional poll last time the Tories were ahead of Plaid. But why should you expect the Tory voter count to fall now? Labour and Plaid supporters might not like what is happening in the UK but there is no evidence that Conservative voters have become disillusioned with the UK Government, whilst the poor economic, education and NHS performance of the Labour/Plaid Assembly is not going to win over Tories in Wales is it?

Plaid are safe in their heartlands but the votes that they won in the South and East in 2007 are going back to Labour. Labour gain from exPlaid and from the left leaning LibDem voters.....Plaid have got nothing to hope for other than that the execrable d'Honte system doesn't reflect in lost seats the amount of lost votes.

Plaid seem to be in denial. The problem is that they never accepted their falling popularity at the General Election. They put it about that they were the victims of the televised leader debates but, whilst it's Ok to make up plausible excuses for failure, it's a mistake to start believing them yourself.

Hard to disagree that the poll and the trends are very poor for Plaid Cymru - and in sharp distinction to the SNP in Scotland which has narrowed Labour's poll lead and is successfully challenging for the role of bulwark against a Tory-led government in London. Admittedly the paucity of intelligent Welsh mass media makes it difficult for any politician to get her views over to the public in Wales but Plaid's failure to connect is nonetheless striking, especially at a time when the voting public has swung behind devolution. The party needs some heartsearching and a big shake up. None of the parties is showing much quality. The Conservatives ridiculous pledge to ring fence health expenditure at a time of budget cut-backs is idiotic misplaced populism. And Welsh Labour's readiness to sink back into narrow party tribalism and rely on the unpopularity of the London government to get elected is depressing. Kirsty Williams comes over slightly better but Clegg has destroyed her party in Wales - and perhaps in the UK - for a generation. The only solution is entryism. People of all views should join the Welsh Labour Party and breathe some intellectual life into it from inside.

A very intelligent post Tredwyn.

Why is it that REALITY causes such a problem in this little part of the world,other than the sheer fact that we rely very heavily upon the productive capacity of the free market economy,which is based around the south eastern part of england for our current standard of living. Instead of causing embarrasment,and instead creating a political will to correct the social and economic imbalances,and also removing the "nation building" exercise,we seem to be embarking on a "bashing" exercise against the constitutionally elected GOVERNMENT in Westminster. It is accepted that the major problems in capitalist economy,needed public funds/borrowing in 2008/9,however the real reason for the deficit is the sheer level of expenditure by the LABOUR government,which was based of economic "forecasts" that all serious observers "rubbished" with regular delight. The "performance" of Peter Hain (how does he survive),in seeking to portray the vote of May 5th as being important to the westminster government,when the whole of the Euro area is possibly going to collapse,particularly as the german people have had enough of funding lifestyles of the latin south of europe,is surely a JOKE. The whole basis of PC,is surely its long established view that wales should be "independant",and the need for its economic/social/linguistic policies should be direct towards that aim,and unfortunately the nationalist wing of LLAFUR,i.e King Rhodri/Prince Carwyn and cronies are taking us along that route. Meanwhile the reality of welsh life,of which has been managed/directed by Labour/PC since 1999 is heading for relative decline in absolute terms. The only thing keeping as afloat is the generous funding by our friends "over the border",as beloved by 麻豆社 CYMRU,who hopefully are going to suffer major cuts in their funding in next couple of years,and then might just concentrate of making programmes,rather than being part of the political/media campaign for welshification of little wales.

TellingmewhatIknowalready 鈥� for you to talk of the 鈥渘ationalist wing of LLAFUR,i.e King Rhodri/Prince Carwyn and cronies鈥� is very starnage given your clearly nationalistic language taken from the far-right, anti-immigrant UKIP textbook 鈥� 鈥渢he whole of the Euro area is possibly going to collapse,particularly the german people have had enough of funding lifestyles of the latin south of europe,is surely a JOKE鈥�.

When we are on the subject please tell me what you would describe as a 鈥渓ifestyles of the latin south of Europe鈥�? I'd be interested to know as myself I don't stereotype nations or races.

But let me give you this opportunity to show how un-nationalistic you are. Would you agree with me that a bilingual Wales, looking after its own internal affairs as part of a United Kingdom that is part of a strong federal European Union is clearly the ideal for any anti-nationalist and also agree that the parties that espouse the UK leaving our brothers and sisters in the EU (UKIP and the BNP) are just small-minded extreme nationalists who should be given short shrift by the electorate on May 5th?

If the same kind of poll were taken in England - the English are equally, if not more scared of the ConDem government.

Cuts in England are more vicious, harder and faster from Westminster on the English population because they have no protection, as devolved governments have.

16, corum-populo-2010 wrote:

鈥淐uts in England are more vicious, harder and faster from Westminster on the English population because they have no protection, as devolved governments have.鈥�

John McEnroe 鈥�....................... be serious鈥�

Totally different story in Scotland where Labour's polling has taken a nose-dive over the past few weeks. The SNP are now in the lead, and looking like to form the next government.

I am surprosed that the Welsh nationalists are doing badly, but not surprised by Scottish Labour's bad showing. Iain Gray has proved to be a man of little worth, even running away and attempting to hide from protesters in Labour's backyard in Scotland - Glasgow.

What is still concerning as happened in last year's UK elections are 麻豆社 Scotland's attempts to curtail and even closing online commenting.

Betsan has proved to be an useful outlet for those Scots wishing to provide input in the political debate. Expect more of the same over the next few weeks.

Of course apologies to Welsh commentators who feel this site is being hijacked by Scots.

#18 wrote:

'What is still concerning as happened in last year's UK elections are 麻豆社 Scotland's attempts to curtail and even closing online commenting.'

There have been several occasions in recent years where the 麻豆社's impartiality could be called into question.

I think of its coverage of Israel's attack on Gaza in 2008, the broadcasting of the 'leaders' debates in the General Election to the exclusion of the SNP and Plaid, and of the recent Welsh referendum campaign.

During the latter it published the comments of its 'selected' election panel on its website, whose opinions were markedly skewed in an anti-devolution way. Its three referendum debates treated the No campaign as equal to the Yes campaign, when it was evident that there was no equality. It sought to provide 'balance at all costs', which probably increased the No vote, as it gave greater credence to a very small group in south east Wales. We deserve better and more intelligent coverage from a public-funded broadcaster.

Public service broadcasting should be devolved to the nations. The first 'B' in 麻豆社 says it all - it is controlled in London. The 麻豆社 Trust commissioned research in 2008 which found that Wales was 'the invisible nation' in its UK services. Little has been done to correct that since. Its News channel is London-orientated with largely English-based political and news stories. Anyone watching it knows all about health and education in England, but virtually nothing of what goes on in Wales.

I'm heartened that the SNP are in the lead. It has an excellent leader and deputy leader in Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, and great policies. I wish it every success in the forthcoming election.

I have my opinons on Plaid's direction in recent years, which I will keep for a more appropriate time.

I fail to understand Labour's continuing appeal to Welsh voters as it is a party devoid of principles, which has caused the present economic and financial calamity for the UK. Worse still, it has dominated the National Assembly during the first eleven years of its life, and done a pretty poor job of handling devolved matters. My hope is that it doesn't obtain an overall majority.

"There have been several occasions in recent years where the 麻豆社's impartiality could be called into question. "

You dont know about partiality until you're a Welshman living in the states. I don't think further clarification is needed.

The 麻豆社 is far from perfect, and it's important to remain ever-critical, but I wouldn't overstate its imperfections. Although I do agree that devolved governance can be complicated and misunderstood in London, it makes sense to place greater emphasis on more knowledgeable localised coverage. (but then I'm far from an expert on the 麻豆社)

I can understand both sides of the political divide in Wales accusing the 麻豆社 of bias, it has an incredibly difficult tight rope to walk. On one side we have seen some of the more hysterical anti devolution people complaining of any mention of the the National Assembly as an example of political bias, while the pro devolution side has found that the 麻豆社 trying to achieve balance has given time and space to the anti devolution side way out of proportion to its actual support. We have seen this on other issues too, for example going after homophobic rent a quote self appointed ministers when ever a LGBT story breaks. Generally I think the 麻豆社 does reasonably well, though it has to contend with a London leadership that doesn't really understand devolution, likewise ITV and certainly Sky. I have to say that isn't just a Wales/England thing, its more a London/Rest of the World thing.

What I find disappointing in this Welsh General election so far has been the paucity of argument of what people are going to do. Labour seem intent on turning it into a referendum on the UK coalition, and while its inevitable that some people will vote on that basis, that is not the issue at hand. The issue is who governs Wales for the next 5 years and what is their program for government.

The Conservatives know that they are unlikely to be in government - so can make the unrealistic pledge of ring fencing the health budget to the detriment of all other budgets.

The Lib Dems seem to be getting punished and are flip flopping on previous policies - such as prescription fees, though to their credit are trying to run on the record of the current government. Even though some of the things that they have attacked were hatched when they were in coalition with Labour (Techniums spring to mind)!

Plaid has come out with some innovative policies but seems now to be getting the brunt of those tribalists within Labour. Why on earth was Peter Hain fronting their campaign? Who is the leader of the Labour Party in Wales, Hain or Jones?

Plaid are stagnating in the polls - some good performances on TV might help them, but again it comes down to coverage. Don't expect more than sound bites on the UK news and how many watch the political debates from Welsh broadcasters?

#20

Living there, I can see your point!

The 麻豆社 hasn't really come to terms with devolution. Whether or not its possible for it to do so is another matter.

". On one side we have seen some of the more hysterical anti devolution people complaining of any mention of the the National Assembly as an example of political bias, while the pro devolution side has found that the 麻豆社 trying to achieve balance has given time and space to the anti devolution side way out of proportion to its actual support."

Well LDT, You see some of the problem in your analysis. The 麻豆社, according to you, "Gave time and space to .....The anti devolution side way out of proportion to its actual support". However, it is logical to also say that the anti-devolutionists were dependent on publicity for a realisation of what support they got. I take it therefore that, as usual with nationalists, your position is that only your own view should be heard

In the case under discussion, coverage of assembly parties, you would advise that Labour should get 51% of 麻豆社 coverage, Tories 20.3%, Plaid 16.7% and Libdems 7.6%.

As for your Lesbian, Gay and Bi-sexual comment this is relevant how exactly?

Lyn, your #21 refers to a "Welsh General election" ...

... this is of course your wishful thinking, the Electoral Commission refer to the 5th May elections as ...

... "National Assembly for Wales elections and Referendum ..... ", no hint of a "general" anywhere ...

#21

I watched the 麻豆社's 'Politics Show' today. The first half of the programme, broadcast UK-wide concerned the proposed ConDem Health reforms in England. These are only of passing relevance to those of us who do not live in England. Yet we pay our licence fees to hear about them. It's an example of the 麻豆社's failure to get to grips with devolution. It's Anglo-centric in most of what it does.

#24

A General Election is a UK-wide election for the UK's legislature - only part of which is elected! This election is Wales-wide for Wales' legislature, all of which is elected democratically, so it can properly be referred to as Wales' 'general' election. The UK's political system is evolving, so terminology will change. Language and terminology is driven by usage, not by governmental organisations. LDT is well within his rights to refer to it as such.

#23

My understanding is that media coverage at election time is based not on opinion polls, but on the level of electoral success, and the number of candidates standing.

The 麻豆社 had a duty, imo, during the referendum campaign to reflect the strength of both campaigns in its coverage. Only two minor parties supported the No campaign, yet it was given equal coverage by the 麻豆社.

Bryn_Teilo writes at #22 ...

The 麻豆社 hasn't really come to terms with devolution......

... it could be it cannot come to terms with the quality of Wales politics, the boredom must be excruciating.

Bryn_Teilo wrote at 25.....

It's Anglo-centric in most of what it does.

... our world is currently Anglo-centric, it has been for centuries and the vast majority are very happy with it, if they weren't we would have people remonstrating as they have in North Africa, get over it.

also you wrote .... A General Election is a UK-wide election for the UK's legislature - only part of which is elected!

... I just don't know where you get so much misinformation, the General Election is our UK wide selection of Members of Parliament, the election this May 5th, as I wrote at #24 is...

... "National Assembly for Wales elections and Referendum ..... ", no hint of a "general" anywhere ...

... and Lyn Thomas is incorrect to refer to it in any other way.

What I will commend is that Betsan is still working on her blog - yet, strangely, David Cornack isn't working on his? Hmmm.

Actually its quite widely referred to as the Welsh General Election, there is nothing sacred about the term, it can be applied to any election that isn't a by election.

Sedwot, I want the 麻豆社 to cover all views, however balance can be misleading, certainly the 麻豆社 were obliged to invite the no campaigners to participate and put their view, indeed it was their duty to do so. Where I have problems is a suggestion that both views should be presented as if they were supported by evenly balanced numbers on each side. Actually I think the no side relished their position as an underdog. The LGBT comment illustrates why in attempt to create balance you get some extremist being asked for their views when they are a tiny minority. Likewise going to get quotes from the Taxpayers Alliance, when in fact they are a rightwing pressure group and not some citizens coalition.

Balance is in the eye of the beholder, certainly Party Election Broadcasts are not apportioned on the grounds of equality.

As I said for the most part the 麻豆社 in Wales gets it more or less right ish... The 麻豆社 establishment in London is getting better with devolution but has a long way to go.

#27 wrote:

'...our world is currently Anglo-centric'

That would be the UKIP view of the world.

In reply to #30 .... I don't know about UKIP, is it Anglo-centric (A-c)? I know if you turn on the TV the world is A-c, open a newspaper and it will be A-c, our Universities are A-c, our businesses are A-c, our local authorities are A-c, the Assembly is A-c ...

... because that is what the UK is, it is A-c.

In Wales the Assembly could be different, I don't believe its incumbents know how to be different .....

John if we are being pedantic about terms then its the National Assembly for Wales.... :-)

Betsan,

It seems that all you special-interest-Editors are being 'encouraged' to shut early the posting-window when the topic is 'difficult for the Governments'.

Next time you are on the phone to Douglas and Brian in Scotland, please let them know that the Scots (all over the world) need more than just a few hours to debate the Higher Education Funding issues in all their complexities.

I would have told them myself but - as is common on the 麻豆社 these days - the postings were Closed For Comment.

**Please remember that 24 hours of posting time in the UK does not mean 24 hours of daylight time in other parts of the world. Frequently the posting-window has open and closed before we in far-flung locations get a chance to comment.

Watch your back, and protect the public's interest.
Geoff.