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It's "and they're off" that did it.

Karl the bookie can't resist a headline like that. Neither can he resist stirring things up a bit.

The official bookies give 21 of Wales' 40 seats to Labour, 9 to the Conservatives - just short of that 'double figures' target. 5 go to the Liberal Democrats, 4 to Plaid Cymru and 1 - Blaenau Gwent - to stay independent.

The Electoral Reform Society reckon - shoo-ins where your vote won't count. The message? Pack away the rosettes and change the electoral system.

Karl, who is still a bookie at heart if not for real, doesn't go for that sort of attitude. He's studied the going and reckons Wales will be all hung up with Labour and the Conservatives on 15 seats each, Plaid Cymru on 5 with the Lib Dems on 4 and Blaenau Gwent evading Labour again.

Labour shoo-ins are considerably fewer on his list. Cardiff West goes blue, as does Carmarthen West. Bridgend could provide a shock he reckons, as could Gower and Delyn and Newport West where he 'can't make Labour' his favourite. Vale of Clwyd? Blue too along with Brecon and Radnorshire.

He also reckons turnout will be high: 67% - 68% is his favourite. It was 62.6% in 2005, just above UK average.

Care for a bet? If he's offering odds on those sort of results, I wouldn't mind. 15 seats each to Labour and the Conservatives? But he's not and this is, if I need to spell it out, just a bit of fun as Uncle Bryn would put it.

UPDATE

Just spotted Adam Price on College Green claiming that a hung parliament "is a racing certainty" and that he can't wait for the others to come "tap, tap, tapping" at Plaid's door.

Tapping? How very restrained.

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