Runners and riders
Will he stay or will he go?
Peter Hain will certainly ride out the current storm. How do I know? Big Karl, our E-betting guru says so, that's how.
If Mr Hain has any cash to spare after paying back that £25,000 loan, he might be tempted by these odds in his favour:
Peter Hain to remian as Welsh Secretary: 1-2
Peter Hain to stand down or be sacked: 11-8
IF he goes, who comes in?
Kevin Brennan: 6-4
Huw Irranca-Davies: 5-2
David Hanson: 7-2
No Welsh MP appointed; position combined at next reshuffle: 5-1
Kim Howells: 10-1
Wayne David: 25-1
By the way the odds-on favourite to become one of Plaid's new batch of Lords - Dafydd Wigley - has finally confirmed that his 'conditions for standing' have been met. In other words, he wants the job.
I'm Betsan Powys, Â鶹Éç Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on .
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Isn't Kevin Brennan a bit too "gone native" (aka Rhodri-ite) for the PLP bunker to accept? Will Pope Don let this happen?
Time to "Bring back RON!"
(aka "Anyone but WAYNE!")
Me, I'm waiting for Peter Hain's old "down the back" sofa to come on the market! Better than the lottery!
AND..."He (Peter Hain) liquefies at the end of each day and sleeps in a bucket to emerge in another chosen shape the following morning. The Shape-shifter in the only one of his kind. Or is he ?"...
(c) Paul Flynn MP, Blog c. 1999 describing the Tan-Man.
Today ~ (current O' Flynn blog) ... "Peter is a man of honesty and integrity ...We must not let the Daily Mail chose our ministers!"
Ahem...Right, I thought it was the Guardian's (Ashley/Toynbee's) job?
But, "Bucket" ...I like that!
I'll bet on "no Welsh MP" appointed.
Let's face it, nobody on that list is worth a cabinet place on his own, and Brown's not going to want a full-time Welsh Secretary doing next to no work for a fat salary at a time when he's trying frantically to cut the size of the Parliamentary bill (no puns intended).
Also, it gives him a cast iron and much needed excuse to drop Shaun Woodward (increasingly reverting to Tory type if recent rumours are to be believed) and shift Des Browne from Defence where he has always looked completely clueless and has clearly lost the confidence of the AF. Odds are that as Browne is an ally of Brown and can't be sacked, he'll cope all three devolved nations.
Gives Plaid Cymru another massive stick to beat Labour with though. Isn't it unfortunate for them that they're in government with Labour and can't go all-out for the jugular?
If they dig into his relationship with Isaac Kayes and his pharmaceutical company that was involved in a cartel that overcharged the NHS £400 million for drugs, there is no way he should survive. His relationship with Keyes means that he has lost integrity. Good on the John Lyons for deciding Hain has a case to answer.
In this age of coalition partnerships and working together, I'm surprised someone hasn't mentioned doing away with all three offices (Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales) and allowing each First Minister to sit in on Cabinet meetings.
Somehow I think the odds are not good on that one.
Thoes familar with the history of the Delta Quadrant, will know that Shapeshifters are a species of integrity with an honourable record of peacemaking.