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Davos to planet earth: we've lost something

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Paul Mason | 19:46 UK time, Wednesday, 27 January 2010

It's taken me nearly four hours to get here on the train from Zurich, up a branch line that would make a great film set if they ever remake The Great Escape.

I've arrived fuming against the general pointlessness of Davos. It's a kind of world stage for powerful people to come and have a monologue about their issues and agendas, and then listen to those of others, in an atmosphere where the media are almost duty-bound to make a fuss of them.

But there issues of great portent being discussed here. Haiti, Yemen, the ever present woes of the developing world. Climate change. And above all the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Financier George Soros has the US powers-that-be for failing to maintain a convincing economic stimulus, and warned of a double-dip recession. Coming in the same week that economics guru Joseph Stiglitz , it's making Davos a powerful node of pressure on the Obama administration for what I now call Plan N: the New York Times-led alternative of greater fiscal stimulus in America, which received a great fillip last week when Obama effectively sidelined Larry Summers and Tim Geithner in favour of a crowd-pleasing move to break up major banks.

But there is counter-pressure too. The Brit financial entourage is here - Treasury folks, outriders for Alistair Darling. Not only are the people from the Treasury deeply unenthusiastic about the Obama/Volcker move against investment banking, they are also making it clear in background that the Tobin Tax - or Financial Transaction Tax - is. as one government source put it to me, "down the running order". There will be, this week, a last flurry of enthusiasm for James Tobin's big idea before it is consigned to oblivion by the realities of the situation (see below).

What's happening is that governments, pressured by the electorate, embarassed by the sheer scale of the investment banking bounce-back, are looking for ways to penalise the banking sector for the implicit guarantee that stands behind it, and for the superprofits they have generated out of the anti-crisis measures still in force. Since this involves raising money, it is a win-win for cash-strapped treasuries.

But what they haven't got is any global means of acting: the IMF/World Bank can't, the G20 won't - therefore you could say that we are at a moment of realisation that the various "global good ideas" for shutting the stable door are really not going to happen and that, as with Obama and Glass-Steagall 2.0, it's all going to be national measures and realpolitik from now on.

What I am looking for, here in this snowy town full of 50s-era hotels (I am staying in one where the old New Zealand saying - "set your watches back 20 years" would be appropriate) are signs of an emerging new consensus or vision about the future of capitalism.

Right now all I can discern are glimpses. There's a big subtheme about the emergence of China and India (Indian CEOs are everywhere here); western consultancy gurus are pretty much all over this issue of the multi-speed recovery, the multi-polar world, the bi-polar power game between China and the USA etc.

But the idea that capitalism may have to go through an epoch-change, altering the balance between state and private sector, citizen and consumer, human beings and environment etc, is all, still, pretty inchoate.

Klaus Schwab, a kind of Alpine Maharishi to the Davos sect (he runs the WEF) has :

"We have witnessed a gradual erosion of this communitarian spirit over recent years. This erosion of societal values has progressed particularly in the business world, and is also one of the primary reasons of the current economic crisis."

What's interesting is, as corporate leaders try to grapple with what "nice capitalism" might look like, how they often go back to deep-rooted, old-fashioned religious concepts of ethics and morality for inspiration. I don't deride that, but it's interesting how un-modern much of it sounds, whereas in an ideal world what you would want was something that re-stated human, ethical values in a modern contex and sounded less like a public school prize giving speech from thirty-odd years ago.

In a way the unstated theme of this year's Davos is "we've lost something" - whether it be US hegemony, any sense of morality in business, or any sense of where sustained growth is going to come from in the economies that have been fuelled for two decades by cheap credit (see yesterday's UK GDP figure for a grim reminder of that problem).

Of course what you've got here are some of the most talented people on earth, and chutzpah in bigger drifts than the snow, so what the people on camera out of Davos say will always sound confident.

But what I'm sensing is an inner lack of confidence, 18 months on from the meltdown and less than 12 months on from the turn to quantitative easing in the Anglo-Saxon economies.

Some of the more farsighted people are basically going around saying: the western model is in decline, stand by for the rise of China, India, Brazil and South Africa. What I'm not hearing is the second half of the sentence, which should be: "and here is the new future for the west, for Britain, for America etc."

Anglo-Saxon economies, and politicians, are still it seems in the "dealing with it" stage, rather than the "moving on from it" stage. I had to endure a train journey through soul-less Switzerland to discover this but Davos is Davos. If you're going to try and sense the zeitgeist of global economy, you have to do it here, and all of the above - impressionistic though it is - is a summary of what my zeitgeist antennae are telling me.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Paul wrote:

    "But there issues of great portent being discussed here. Haiti, Yemen, the ever present woes of the developing world. Climate change. And above all the aftermath of the financial crisis."

    ---------------------------

    Paul....as some wag astutely commented over on Roberts's blog ..."The Davos clique are talking, but it is about how to renew their privileges and profits, not about us."

    Nighty night!

  • Comment number 2.

    One more thing Paul...before you turn the lights out!

    I have copied one of 'JadedJean's posts below from the Â鶹Éç blogsite archives...

    "Trotskyites were also 'Marxists' but they were/are anti-statists. Think of them as the Militant Tendency who undermined Labour. Think of them as New left, New Labour, Neo-Conservatives. Think of all Western 'Marxists' as Trotskyites or Neo-conservatives (anarchists) and you will see the true nature of 'anarchism in the UK' since, at least, the 70s. What was being taken down? Anarchism was promoted in the 70s by the music business, controlled by whom? To what end? Individualism is anarchism. It is at odds with social duty to one another.

    In recent times we have witnessed an assault on state education, via the salami technique, used everywhere else to undermine the state: aka Public Services. It's as insidious as it is relentless. Sniping at bits of the NHS, education, Royal Mail, utilities etc. This has been done via Permanent Revolution and has one clear agenda, namely privatization - i.e Balkanization, the destruction of the 'greater family' of the UK. This is Trotskyist Anarchism at work. It is why Naked Capitalism and Jewish International Bolshevism (Trotsky-Zinoviev Comintern) are in fact two sides of the same individualistic/narcissistic, coin. This has nothing in common with socialism (or Old Labour). The latter has its roots in British, not Jewish socialism. Even the original Marxists were in London after all!"

    -----------------------

    Is any of this true!...if not, why not?

  • Comment number 3.

    I cant stop saying Davros (an evil doer in an old Dr Who adventure) instead of Davos. Davros created the Daleks - hmmm. It is a gathering of the unspeakble in pursuit of the unfathomable in the land of long term peace and cuckoo clocks but do any of them remember their rosebud? To round off their communion with the Zietgeist they should think of their dead soldiers, the colossal gap between rich and poor, crushing poverty in Haiti and the impending destablisation of the planet by an economic system out of the control of mankind.

    Not much will change until there is an economic or social or environmental crisis that threatens the comforts of the top wealthy third of the western world.

  • Comment number 4.

    Some of the most talented people on Earth - hmm, I don't think so.

    Sorry Paul, but only an Economics correspondent would type that out, re-read it and not hit the DEL key. Some of the greediest, vainest and egotistical people on the planet? Yes, then you might be on to something.

    I doubt any new ideas will come out of Davos - you need imagination, you need a vision for that to happen. Look around your cosy hotel and ask yourself just how many visionaries are sharing strudle with you? Any? No, politicians, business leaders, etc, tend to be grey people in grey suits and, whilst they are good at latching onto the ideas and vision of others, they are seldom any good at doing it themselves.

    What needs to come out of Davos is something revolutionary, something which fundamentally alters the capitalism in which we all must be born, work, live and die. Do you see any of the vested interests wanting to change the status quo?

    I suspect some at Davos would be happy to see 6 billion of us in poverty, or slaving away for most of our lives, just as long as they can remain rich, as long as they can hold on to the power reigns. You need imagination to have a vision and you need a Soul to change.

    That Klaus Schwab sounds like a sensible chap - if you bump into him ask him for one of his spice racks.

  • Comment number 5.

    the basic imbalance in the world economy is the low value of the chinese currency that drives employment and manufacturing to china away from everywhere else who then need huge debt to pretend they are still great economies.

    if money is like water you only need to tip the table a bit for all the water to end up in one place. which is what the chinese are doing.

    to break this imposed trend of impoverishment the uk has to face down china and what in effect is an economic war that surely destroys factories as a real one would. China keeps pleading the 'special case' but one would have to say a country with trillions in reserves is not a special case whereas the uk with over a trillion in debt is.

    much of this is psychological. The uk may have made the physical trip to poverty but not the mental trip and the political class still talk in terms of carlton house images of imperialism and deluded market fundamentalism.

    soros is right about 'Both regulators and bankers had the "misconception" that markets are efficient, Mr Soros said, and had been blinded by their "ideology" of "market fundamentalism," assuming that markets should always be lightly regulated.'



    how do the market fundamentalists in the uk govt square their ideology with chinese currency manipulation?

    Gordon's one answer to everything is tax. Its his default position.

    if we do not deal with chinese currency manipulation [it should be the strongest currency in the world not weaker than the pound] then through economic logic all the water will end up in one corner of the table.

    At the Proms people still sing 'britons never will be slaves' but if we lack the courage to stand up for currency 'justice' then soon enough we will be able to say 'we are all tibetans now'?

  • Comment number 6.

    At the expense of seeming tedious how many from the Â鶹Éç are up this Swiss mountainside? How many from the Treasury, the Bank and the other regulators?

    So not only is the taxpayer expected to subsidise bank bonuses but also expense a bunch of free loading journalists and regulators. Just to show that I do not have a wholly negative outlook I do so hope you get to enjoy the break.

    But wouldn't it be more useful to send one who can then report to the others?

    Also whilst you are away who is looking after the shop?

    By the way Swiss railways are very efficient. They are dull because they work: a lesson is in there somewhere.

  • Comment number 7.

    Some responses to the above:
    #6. The Â鶹Éç is a participant at Davos and therefore hosts a debate here. There is a small contingent of technical type people, mainly serving our 60 million global audience via Â鶹Éç World News, with live interviews with politicians and business leaders. The Â鶹Éç actually limits who can attend on the news side and this is the first year I have made the cut. Stephanie and Robert are here, plus reporters on the world affairs side of things. It is most definitely not overstaffed - the tech people are so overworked they are having to eat at their consoles - and in terms of expense I can tell you I have stayed in student dorms that were more luxurious.
    #4. Greedy, vainglorious etc or no, they are also talented.
    #3. Actually when I worked as a subeditor in publishing we coined the verb "to Davros" to describe the act of propelling yourself around the office on an office chair with castors, using your feet.

  • Comment number 8.

    Paul

    Thanks for the good copy: a nice positive response.

    Eating at your console is not uncommon in this globalised world. I agree it is deplorable but it is what many of us have to do to stay on top of the action.

    I wasn't complaining about the luxury I was complaining about the price. Now that you tell me you are living in a hole I feel even more annoyed both in my role as your employer by default and as a human being. Overcharging is an oppression. I will complain to my shareholders about it: they are Swiss.

  • Comment number 9.

    Eating at your console is not uncommon but then the health risks that result from it are increasingly common - upset stomachs, being 'in your head' all the time and not being 'grounded', stress, more stress, acute stress and then chronic stress.

    No, best to switch off the laptop, the iphone, the i-life and go for a walk, find somewhere quiet, sit down and concentrate on your meal. Drop your shoulders, stretch your back and have 10 minutes of mindfulness meditation.

    Enjoy your free time, allow your mind to rest and your body to digest. In the long-term you will be happier, healthier and less stressed. We may never come this way again.

    Here endeth the lesson.

  • Comment number 10.

    What a refreshingly open-handed blog Mr Mason !

    I have travelled through Switzerland on endless occasions..admiring its physical beauty and spectacular Springscapes.

    But the more I read about her...the more hours I spend there... I have learnt to dislike the contradicition between Traum und Wirklichkeit.

    I have sometimes thought I was in a cleverly disguised cesspit when there. ( More likely though, this is just my own imagination ....)

    Under the surface is there really a nasty, secretive country ? Reluctant to be honest and open with the world ? If so, is it perhaps not an entirely unsuitable location for some of individuals currently there ? The Â鶹Éç excluded.




  • Comment number 11.

    "crowd pleasing move to break up major banks."
    I hope you sense an unease. The reality of bank and Large Complex Financial Institutions holding sovereign states to ransom and picking their pockets is coming home to roost. George Soros made the point that contagion will be reduced by enforced break-ups, and not just of banks ( shuffling off a banking licence aint going to help). I hope the feeling of cosy self-reliance between debt-junky politicians and big banks/LCFIs providing the fix and the stick with Chinese dough is draining away.

    Not so much pleasing the crowd, rather cracking the whip.

  • Comment number 12.

    Interesting stuff as ever Paul, even more impressive that you're taking time to reply to the comments. Good stuff!

  • Comment number 13.


    Morality in a modern context ? or perhaps morality as necessary for a context ?





  • Comment number 14.

    A fundamental problem with both politicians and business leaders is that a great many of them think they are never going to die. I suspect that there are many who will be at Davos like this.

    So you have politicians sprouting nonsense about us all having to work into our 70s - I doubt many of them will need to - when the harsh reality is that Mother Nature simply will not allow most of us to do so. Or you have the Murdochs, the Buffetts and the like still empire building, still needing to accquire wealth and power whilst the Grim Reaper inevitably draws nearer.

    Caring Capitalism is as far removed from many of the Davos crowd as that recently discovered planet, supposedly 10 billion light years from Earth, where life may or may not exist. Such people live for status, for power, for wealth and, of course, for ego. There is always ego. The need to control individuals, corporations and countries is their raison d'etre.

    All great social and economic changes, (I could be wrong on the latter.), have come from the bottom up. It is only when the people have had enough, rebel and, bluntly, start lining up against the wall the likes of the very people who get to go to Davos, Â鶹Éç reporters excluded, that anything fundamental changes.

    With every year that passes Davos looks more and more like one of those secret elite clubs of the wealthy that you read about on Wiki - existing only to maintain control and perserve the wealth of the elite.

    Keep an eye out for black helicopters and Fox Mulder Paul.

  • Comment number 15.

    Of course the bankers look gloomy , they are scared of retaliation....... but inside they are actually quite cosy , what with loans averaging less than 70% to valuation, interest rates a tidy 3-4% above base for the majority, capital ratios up thanks to QE and profits ticking along nicely.
    As for current despair ....it will pass.....it always does.
    As for China, pride comes before a fall...... you ain't seen nothin' yet ......talk about Chinese exploding fireworks!
    .....and you heard it from onward-ho.

  • Comment number 16.

    fuming against the general pointlessness of [ ]. It's a kind of world stage for [ ] people to come and have a monologue about their issues and agendas, and then [appear to] listen to those of others, in an atmosphere where the media are almost duty-bound to make a fuss of them.

    And mostly do. Deserved or not. Harking back, I fear the same can only be said of pretty much any global gathering I can recall going a fair way back.

    Welcome to our world.

  • Comment number 17.

    #15 Mr "I see no debts!"

    Take a look at the Haldane article (Banking on the State) referenced by Paul a few days back:

    /blogs/newsnight/paulmason/2010/01/obama_banks_the_myth_of_the_ca.html

    (Paul's allowed to link to a pdf, but us mere mortals get a slap round the wrist.)

    My post #33 on the blog gives a quick synopsis of some of the key points, but if you have the time and inclination I suggest you read the full piece - it is a very lucid description of the part played by the growth of banking debts, sorry, assets ;-) direct from the heart of the BoE.

    Tally ho!

  • Comment number 18.

    #2 freemarketanarchy

    Resuscitating JadedJean's racist delusions!

    The basic Trotskyist & Left-Wing Communism argument against Stalinism & Maoism is that the Communist Party is the ruling class & that therefore you do not have a classless society.

    But remember the Trotskyists are still Bolsheviks & believe in Lenin's concept of the party leading the masses to communism.

    The Left-Wing communists emphasise the role of the councils & direct democracy over the party.
    In this sense the Left-Wing Communists have common ground with some anarchists.

    But the true anarchists have no faith in the working class & tend to see things in an individualistic way.
    They don't understand Marx.

    None of these groups are part of any Jewish conspiracy.
    Only right-wing fascists with very little understanding of what they are on about believe such nonsense.

  • Comment number 19.

    #18

    20. At 11:33pm on 27 Jan 2010, you wrote:

    Did anyone else listen to Nick Cohen (Guardian journalist) arguing with Guy Goodwin-Gill QC (Queen's Counsel, specialising in international law) arguing with each other over the legality of the Iraq war (and of course Blair's innocence, or not) on Eddie Mair's Radio 4 programme this afternoon?

    If it's possible to listen to it on a podcast, I recommend that you do.

    Nick Cohen was staunchly defending Tony Blair's final decision.

    In light of the many posts by JadedJean on this blogsite in the past...what I listed to on the radio this afternoon tended to reinforce all of the opinions and thoughts that JadedJean made as being true and accurate!

    --------------------------------------

    36. At 11:51am on 28 Jan 2010, you wrote:

    STRANGER AND STRANGER

    Further to my post #20...did anyone else listen to the piece about Sir Martin Gilbert (Iraq Inquiry Panel Member) on the Today programme on Radio 4 earlier this morning? (if not you can listen to it below)


    Apparently Sir Gilbert (who is Jewish btw) threw a bit of a hissy-fit on an Israeli radio show, on air (via internet), whilst talking about the perception of Jews in the UK. Apparently he bitterly complained about a recent article that Richard Ingrams had written in the Indepenant criticising the fact that he (Gilbert) and Sir Lawrence Freedman are committed Zionists and are therefore biased.
    'Richard Ingrams’s Week: Will Zionists' links to Iraq invasion be brushed aside?'


    He (Gilbert) went on to complain about growing anti-semitism in the UK in general and in particular on the blogosphere, demanding that the British Govt take steps to clamp down on the rise of Jewish/Israeli anti-sentiment.


    Two of the five panel members are Jewish. For the record, The Inquiry committee members are Sir John Chilcot (Chairman), Sir Lawrence Freedman, Sir Martin Gilbert, Sir Roderic Lyne and Baroness Usha Prashar.


    BTW...I did some digging into the background of one of the other panal members...Sir Roderic Lyne on Wiki...on here it states...
    'He is an advisor to JPMorgan Chase, who have been chosen to operate the Trade Bank of Iraq, which will give banks access to the financial system of Iraq. He was a special adviser to BP, which currently has major interests in Iraq.'


  • Comment number 20.

    This is an inspired summary Paul,

    Your recent journey from the gritty declining post industrial landscape of Leeds (synonamous with the crucible of the current economic model in many ways) to the ultimate ego fuelled glitzy yet empty expression of the same in Davos, via a twisty snow covered mountain rail track. Clearly it has done your perspective no harm.

    There is an answer to all of this out there, but you wont find it at the end of the line in Davos.

  • Comment number 21.

    "But the concern of the public with the socialization of financial losses is accepted as legitimate. Regulation of the financial system is a necessity to ensure the interests of tax-payers and citizens, given the implicit subsidy of bank capital through the existence of depositors’ insurance and the possibility of the state’s safety net being extended with public money, as happened during the financial crisis to prevent a wider systemic meltdown."

    This was a brief summary of part of the Forum discussion " rethinking systemic risk". Session Panellists were:-
    Jaime Caruana, General Manager, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel
    Ibrahim S. Dabdoub, Group Chief Executive Officer, National Bank of Kuwait, Kuwait; Global Agenda Council on Global Investment Flows
    Robert E. Diamond Jr, President, Barclays, United Kingdom
    Stefan Lippe, Chief Executive Officer, Swiss Re, Switzerland
    Jonathan M. Nelson, Chief Executive Officer, Providence Equity Partners, USA
    Guillermo Ortiz, Professor, ITAM (Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico), Mexico

    How nice of them to accept the legitimacy of the concerns of the great unwashed, ey Paul.We have come a long way if they now accept that regulation is a necessity. That makes us all feel better and confident that they will disappear into their high-powered undergrowth to do their best to resist reforms which damage or challenge their interests.

  • Comment number 22.

    18 duvinrouge

    The individual who writes as `freemarketanarchy' would seem to be the same individual who formerly called themselves `JadedJean'.

    This is evidenced in post 19.

  • Comment number 23.

    Paul - a bit off topic but great interview with Slavoj Zizek on the Culture Show last night. You didn't answer the question though, hell or communism?

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