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Monday 27th October 2008

Len Freeman | 17:00 UK time, Monday, 27 October 2008

Here is Gavin Esler with a look ahead to tonight's programme.

Tonight from the Newsnight House of (Economic) Horrors:

The Prime Minister and Chancellor are steadily ripping up all those rules about borrowing and spending which they assured us back in 1997 would never be broken. Gordon Brown has warned us that borrowing will have to go up, and the Treasury are busy writing new fiscal rules to guide us through the downturn. The independence and remit of the Bank of England is also under intense pressure as politicians and business call for a rate cut. So what is the Government's plan now for the economy and can we trust them to get it right this time?

America

It ain't over till it's over - though the polls still look good for Obama. But might he still fall at the last hurdle? John McCain clearly thinks so, campaigning hard in the keystone state of Pennsylvania - without which he cannot win the presidency. Can McCain - as he has done before - still win in the end? Or are those Republicans who want to forget about the presidency and spend more funds on the Senate and Congressional races on the right track? We'll speak to a senior Republican critic and a McCain supporter.

Typhoid

Earlier this year Newsnight reported on women typhoid carriers locked away in mental institutions as a public health measure. Tonight we've an exclusive update.

And finally

Continuing our series of Jokes fit for the Recession: I talked to my bank manager the other day and he said he was going to concentrate on the big issues from now on. He sold me one outside Boots yesterday.

Truly awful. We need better material. But we'll be sharing the proceeds of (negative) growth tonight on Newsnight at 10.30pm.

Gavin


Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    INCAPABILITY BROWN

    He should be sent on indefinite gardening leave.

    To envisage the 'future' for the planet as ever greater 'goods and services' is to have failed, utterly, to comprehend that it is precisely the goods-and-services mentality that has brought about this Money Mess; and the associated planetary mess. To strive to ensure Britain plays a full part in this nihilism - rather than a small part in its refutation - priceless.

    Of course, as goods and services are linked directly to money, Gordon perceives the solution to lie in his domain, validating his one - assumed - competence. But in truth, any answer to Earth's woes will be found far from money, in a place that neither Gordon, nor an ever greater cohort of 'times-3 educated' dimbos, can comprehend.

    We need a very special hero.

  • Comment number 2.

    THE JOKE'S ON YOU!

    Now the Â鶹Éç's just music-hall
    And Wossie's paid sheds to appal.
    With the output so crass
    Void of all gravitas
    They decline in unending free-fall.

  • Comment number 3.

    PARALLEL LINES LIE TO INFINITY

    Osborne 'carefully' regrets that he SEEMED dodgy. (check his exact words) not that he proved incompetent or worse.

    I remember, over the 10p, Gordon was 'stung' because, in his words, PEOPLE FELT he had been dodgy - implying they were wrong; no apology.

    In the basement of Westminster, do they hold cross-party dissembling classes?

  • Comment number 4.

    'Oh, what a tangled web that's spun, when saying all, and nothing, is how one, or others, have their fun.'

    Ah well, rules were made to be broken.

    But why do I feel my twins should still view the Menendez brothers as a bad example?

    What good is a moral compass when the political one points any way the wind blows, and the media one is aiming straight through the bottom of the barrel, the cellar floor and is halfway to the PRC by now.

    Apologies, for anything (from governments to employee behaviours) are not worth much more than such weasel words as 'unacceptable', 'aren't good enough' or those cited above, plus too many more.

    Especially when we are in an era of no accountability despite responsibility still bringing many, index-linked rewards.

  • Comment number 5.

    All of these jokes have been on the Â鶹Éç news website:



    Come on guys, let's get some original material!

  • Comment number 6.

    It's good news that at long last the economic pundits at least are coming round to the view that it is not possible to treat the current financial environment in the same way as in the past. The days of sitting around and waiting to see what happens as the bank of England currently are doing, are clearly well in the past. The use of new communications technology has increased the rate of change in financial markets by a factor of a hundred over the last 10 years which means that a week is now an aeon and an hour the same as a week.

    It was clear to me round about June or July that the country was entering a recession, the bank had at that time the opportunity to reduce interest rates to provide a monetary stimulus to the economy. Demand was collapsing and the high inflation figures were clearly incorporating strongly deflationary elements. The increase in both food and energy prices due to the bubble in the price of oil, meant that ordinary households had significantly less spending power. So what was showing in the inflation figure as a worrying trend, actually incorporated downward pressure on its own rates. This seems to have been missed by the bank who are so far removed from ordinary life that they cannot see how such a huge increase in fixed costs for the average family inevitably would lead to a massive reduction in demand in the economy. Ergo a slump.

    If you look at the interest rate behaviour of the bank over the summer of 2008, the holding of the 5% rate does not follow the logical pattern of the characteristic wave movement of economic oscillation, they were caught like frightened rabbits in the headlights of headline inflation figures which bore no relation to reality in the current economic regime. The one dissenting voice on me Bank of England monetary committee became so frustrated that he went public with his suggestion that we were about to enter a massive downturn. He was duly ignored. The origins of this slump and nothing to do with turmoil in the financial markets and everything to do with the monetary committee misunderstanding the new economic paradigm.

    The short-term solution is to massively cut interest rates immediately to 2% to stimulate demand in the economy, reduce the number of home repossessions, stimulate the housing market and more importantly give people hope for the future. The banks which are effectively now all supported by the taxpayer (because they cannot be allowed to fail) must be required to pass on interest rate cuts directly to customers and to reducing their own interbank lending rates to pre-crunch levels.

  • Comment number 7.

    So, jonathan ross and russell brand think it's hilarious to insult someone.
    the two questions i have for the bbc are:

    how much do these 'professionals' get paid for acting like immature morons?

    why will you do nothing to stop them acting like idiots?

  • Comment number 8.

    Thought for the Day

    We have a something for nothing financial market.

    You give the something and get the nothing.


    Q: Why did God create economists?
    A: To make weather forecasters look good.

  • Comment number 9.

    Gavin, that joke .....ugh....here is a worse one; Knock, Knock..oose there? Bigish....Bigishoo....Sorry mate, Got one

  • Comment number 10.

    Was going to write something over the dangerous nonsense Brown was coming out with.

    But Barrie Singleton literally got there first.

    May I refer the rest of this comment back to:

    #1

  • Comment number 11.

    On America there could be a rally for McCain - but also a melt-down as the US voters appear to have finally tired of the neo-McCarthyite smearing and belligerence.

    Prescott was talking about the Today programme being "glass half empty" in outlook.

    Is he kidding?

    Labour have led us into the biggest economic crisis for a hundred years and its not a certainty I suppose that we will pull through. Despite 80% of the public being against GM they want to try and push it through - that I have to see. 10p. We ain't winning in Afghanistan and Iraq and shouldn't have been in the latter.

    We never had it so good?

    Or we never had worse leaders with better spin doctors.

    They lose information every other day. Mandelson looks like a potential three strikes and he is out - but still in the Lords (THAT was a mistake).

    Surely the most incompetent government since 1945?

    The Tories are not much better with the yacht-gate affair.

    On the economy if the Japanese found they needed full disclosure to the public to get confidence back then we need a public inquiry - of sorts - to see where the real problems were and whether the solutions are viable.

    I think there was far more blame to be ascribed to the government - but maybe they would get praise.

    They should think of the country rather than their sub-party factions.

    Are Labour bust by the way?





  • Comment number 12.

    lancsdb

    I think we all know the answers to your questions. They get paid an incredible amount- million of pounds.

    And the Â鶹Éç won't do anything to stop them acting like idiots because they are incredibly popular and they bring in huge audiences.

  • Comment number 13.

    Well at least Gavin Esler's jokes about the recession are getting worse at a slower rate ...........
    unlike the world economy alas!

  • Comment number 14.

    In order to give some historical perspective to the politics behind the current crises, the miracle ingredient behind electoral success in the 19th century was often bribery in the form of buying the votes of the poor for a pint of beer. A couple of centuries on surely we are a much more sophisticated electorate; or are we?

    In fact, this route to the electorate’s heart was rediscovered in the 1980s, as Thatcher/Reaganomics. It is only now, a quarter century later, that that electorate is becoming aware of the fraud; and in the US even now the Republicans deny it, which may see them in limbo for a decade or so! For the record, the rules of this confidence trick include:

    1. Find a believable theoretical justification for your actions. Both Thatcher and Reagan embraced the teachings of the (right-wing laissez-faire) Chicago School; initially in the form of Milton Friedman’s monetarism. They were helped by the fact that the conventional wisdom of Keynesianism had been discredited by the failure of the Philips J Curve then (unwisely) espoused by Keynesians. It should have been obvious that these Chicago School theories were rubbish, especially in terms of monetarism which lasted only a few years, but it is only now that their overall flaws are being recognised.
    2. Transfer money from the public sector to people’s own pockets and from investment for the future to consumption in the shorter-term; thus generating a feel-good climate where individuals could spend more on themselves without noticing the corresponding reduction in their real capital. Like any junkie the public were happy to be told to spend now and pay later.
    3. In the public sector achieve this transfer by, at one extreme, by selling off public investments and/or borrowing large sums and, at the other, running down the infra-structure. In the former categories Reagan vastly increased the US government debt and, even after Bill Clinton had largely paid it back, Bush Jr. later increased it even more; to leave the US almost bankrupt. In the latter category Thatcher ran down the transport infra-structure as well as that of education and the NHS; leaving New Labour to pick up the bills in the 21st century.
    4. Persuade the electorate to add to their own feel-good factor by indulging in credit booms, especially in the form of housing booms; the modern equivalent of tulipmania. Add this to government cut-backs and there were trillions of dollars available to make life feel better. The result was an addiction which was near impossible to shake off. The very real buzz of being able to buy anything you wanted captivated a whole generation. It is going to be painful for them now to endure the cold turkey of the resultant economic winter.
    5. Be lucky, not least by having weak opponents. Thatcher was faced with Michael Foot and Arthur Scarville. Could any politician wish for more?

    The formula was so powerful that Gordon Brown continued it even after his socialist party came to power. Even as little as a couple of years ago the new national leaders in Europe were looking to the UK for economic leadership based on the same corrupt principles. Now, however, we all have to give up our addiction.

    The current crises have, fortunately but painfully, exposed the deceptions. Hopefully this latest lesson will keep us going for another half a century, after the slump is over!

  • Comment number 15.

    SLEEPWALKERS IN DENIAL

    mercerdavids (#14) If only WERE the answers.

    *Michael is still a bit too reluctant to face the harsh reality (that we have changed our population irreversibly), but then, he's a cognitivist and 'romantic'. Not long ago he even tried a euphemism - 'Anti-Flynn Effect'.

    A projection, assuming TFRs don't change too much, and note it isn't colour which matters, it's group mean ability, assortive mating and gene barriers.

    Non Whites in Britain
    1951 138,000
    1961 360,000
    1971 751,000
    2001 3,450,000

    2031 15,550,000 ?
    2061 69,862,000 ?

    Think Pakistan and Bangladesh population growth last century and note that our indigenous population's TFR is well below replacement level.

    Who will provide the infrastructure/economy for them in the future? How/why will the 'UK' be different from Bangladesh/Pakistan?

    The only thing I can see that drives this is that some business people want consumers who shop and rent. The more the better.

  • Comment number 16.

    I have been watching the news today and it struck me that the parade of characters featured, from Jonathon Ross and Russel Brand to Ken Clarke and Tony McNulty on Newsnight tonight are all living off the taxpayer in one way or another. Walk down the street and it is infested with various government employees, I went to a County Show recently and about 60% of the stands were taken up by government agencies, it was a bit like wandering about in the footage you see of 1930's Germany where everyone is wearing a uniform.

    When every commentator says we cannot cut taxes or public spending it is hardly surprising because the chances are that the commentator is on the payroll. When you look at all this it is fairly obvious that it is unsustainable. Government employees may claim to pay tax but all they're really doing is recycling money from productive members of society who actually generate the money by productive activities.

    I heard someone called Jim Rogers (ex Soros partner) talking about all this on a US channel (where you do get non public emloyees being interviewed). It was the only sense I heard all day. Why doesn't Newsnight get such people on? It's getting a bit like watching Question Time where all the panelists agree on pretty well everything.

  • Comment number 17.

    14 IS THE NEW 12

    JJ has covered that.

    Hi Mercerdavids. "You left out No. 6: 'schooling for simplistic thought' - otherwise known as 'education, education, education. Tony certainly left a legacy. And he is still swanning the world and 'gracing' power-platforms. The mess the world is in goes a lot wider than money . . .

  • Comment number 18.

    Seems to me a lot of people are missing a trick here. So there is a downturn caused by banks not lending to each other and therefore us which has caused a drop in house prices and meant that building firms cannot finance projects leading to workers being laid off and in consequence workers in related industries (transport etc) being laid off. This also means (THANKYOU THE MEDIA!) that people are scared of what may happen so don't spend their money which results in a downturn in the retail trade and the spiral goes on downwards. So for some reason we think we should bail out the banks without any strings ( I give you the recent Northern Rock bonuses!) when what we really need to be doing is making sure that the housing crisis and building programme is addressed. So here is a suggestion or three, 1) Mandate all councils in Britain to use the money stashed away and unused from council house sales to be used AT ONCE to build good quality social housing. 2) Set up a government mortgage office to lend money at good rates to first time buyers. 3) Reduce interest rates by 2% This will restart the building trade, put money back into the economy and tax into the exchequer. But of course this is the sensible solution which wouldn't make Fat Rich B*ds richer so it won't happen.
    PS I would also suggest thst Right to Buy is altered so that you must have been resident in a property for a minimum of 10 years before you could claim RTB.

  • Comment number 19.

    MORE THAN MANSE-GORDON CAN 'ENCOMPASS'

    Humankind 'tamed' fire. This led to coal, oil and mineral depletion of the Earth.
    Humankind mastered language. This led to religion, science/technology, war.
    Humankind invented farming (industrial food). This led to overpopulation and static, expanding (first laterally, then vertically) masses of population.
    Humankind mastered steam, and electricity.
    This led to a multiplication of physical scope.
    Humankind invented complex medical practices. This has disturbed breeding and life-span.
    Humankind exploited mind-altering substances to escape from himself. It didn't work.
    Humankind invented money and is, now, desperately trying to believe that is his only problem! Clearly, the Money Mess is only a fraction of the total mess we are in.

  • Comment number 20.

    SOFT SEMANTICS

    The ubiquitous 'unacceptable' that simply describes what something is not, seems to have replaced: abhorrent, despicable, crass, tasteless and contemptible etc.

    Bring back the verbal lash!

    Oh - and dump the pair of them; I am not so quick on the remote as I used to be.

  • Comment number 21.

    My personal views


    General Election -

    With some forecasters predicting 3 million unemployed by 2010 and today's announcement to get tough on the sickness benefit (the old diddle fiddle routine) , what's the odds on Labour going for an early General Election say next April or May time ?

    Borrowing-

    As tax revenue goes down and unemployment goes up , of course you need to spend more on benefits, it's just sad the Government has not got a stash of reserves it could use instead of borrowing.

  • Comment number 22.

    Brand & Ross.

    Didn't Kenny Everett get the sack for just sayng someone had slipped them a "fiver" for passing a test?

    So what was good for him ought to be good enough for the unsavoury two.

  • Comment number 23.

    Guys here is a financial joke for the current moment.
    --------------------------------------------------------
    Unprecedented action within the financial sector and uncertainty has now hit Japan.

    In the last 7 hours Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up and Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its branches.

    Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song, while today shares in Kamikaze Bank were suspended after they nose-dived. Samurai Bank is soldiering on following sharp cutbacks, Ninja Bank is reported to have taken a hit, but they remain in the black.

    Furthermore, 500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop and analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.

  • Comment number 24.

    On a serious note the Â鶹Éç should seriously consider sacking both Jonathon Ross and Russell Brand for their unsavoury behaviour to one of our finest actors. How dare they speak to anyone in that manner. What gives them the right to think they can behave so badly. They should hang their heads in shame. I for one would like to give them a clip round the earhole.

  • Comment number 25.

    it does seem the case that when people become imperial they start to believe they are untouchable?

    now they must grovel to try to save their multi million bbc easy life?

    given the current economic climate those bbc hollywood wages look like things that belong to another age?

  • Comment number 26.

    #15 JadedJean

    Statistics from the holocaust denier!

    People know they can trust you for a well balanced interpretation of statistics and race! Integrity central.

    "Holocaust? What holocaust?"

    Ha ha ha!

    You try so hard on the intellectual front and yet it all reads like the product from an elephant with bowel problems.

  • Comment number 27.

    GILLIGAN - ROSS - BRAND

    When politics were embroiled, top Â鶹Éç heads rolled. This time it is just culture and ethics - small beer?

    I note at least one Japanese 'MP' views the Â鶹Éç as 'state broadcasting'. If that is commonplace, across the world, perhaps the Beeb should recover some principles?

  • Comment number 28.

    Never considered not paying the licence fee before Brand and Ross. Am I getting old - or wot?

  • Comment number 29.

    A bit quite on the Aunty-front, today?

    No matters of domestic or non-US international interest that might be deemed 'sparkling'?

    Is it actually possible for there to be any tangible manifestation of accountability in public service these days?

    I have seen so little evidence in the last decade or more (hmnn.. coincidence?) that maybe I should get in while the going's still mighty good.

    Now, if I joined, say, the Â鶹Éç but then got busted for not paying my licence fee would I basically be on permanent paid leave... 'til the pension kicked in. Sweeeeet!

    No way to run a country, mind.

  • Comment number 30.

    BUT WASPS ARE ONLY IQ 100

    Surely the answer to both immigration AND 'Ever Dumber Britain' is to ban anyone below 100 from coming here, and entice those above 100? A bonus might be they would not put up with Westminster for long!

    I'll get me coat.

  • Comment number 31.

    INDEPENDENT ENQUIRY INTO NEW LABOUR (#11)

    Yes please. Then let's enquire into Westminster itself. But in the full EU spirit, let the Germans or perhaps the French mount the enquiry. No - forget that, the EU was corrupt from day one; how about the Norwegians?

    By the way Gangof, your use of '10p' as a statement in its own right is positively Shakespearean.


  • Comment number 32.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 33.

    thegangofone (#26) I hope this [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

    Also, the last few pages of David Coleman's (2007) Moscow presentation .

  • Comment number 34.

    WHAT'S GOING ON (APART FROM A LOT OF INCOMPREHENSION)?

    Barrie (#30) Think about migration source nations and their means. If their means are one (S. Asia) or two (Africa) SD's below the EU mean their 100 is +1 or +2SD (i.e 84% of their population is below 100 or in the case of 2SDs 97% is). That puts thse of 115 and above at +3SD (i.e. a tiny proportion of the population). What will taking those above 100 do to their nations' infrastructure and services? This is why doctor:patient ratios are so low in those countries and why it is so hard to get things done or sustain them surely? As to contributions to the economy, see page 4/8 of what David Coleman [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
    People mean well, but most of us won't be told what's true. It's worth listening to the Murray audio. He's one of a growing number of data driven realists.

  • Comment number 35.

    (replacement message 32):
    ross & brand may be popular, but that doesn't stop them being idiots. After all, what can you say about people who think it's funny to leave obscene messages on a 78 year old's answer phone? or, the bbc people who also thought there was nothing wrong and kept them in the 'show'? I can see another 'holier than thou' bbc attempt at a whitewash.

    message to the moderators/censors:
    is this ok for you?

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